TRAC Starts Analyzing “Trump Enforcement Data” — Initial Results Are Inconclusive

http://trac.syr.edu/immigration/reports/462/

“Because of these filing and recording delays, it is too soon to determine overall trends. However, some large shifts in the composition of post-Trump cases are suggestive:

The court is now seeing many more cases where the individual was detained at the time the case is filed, and fewer non-detained cases. See Figure 1.

California, as compared to Texas and New York, are seeing larger numbers proportionately than previously.

The court is receiving fewer cases from individuals who entered the country within the last year, including fewer unaccompanied juveniles and women with children seeking refuge in the U.S.”

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Read the complete report, with charts, at the above link. These results do appear consistent with the Trump initiatives — more detention, fewer cases being referred from the border, more action in major urban areas such as California.

But, as a “rank amateur,” I found the stats too small a sample, too early in the Administration to draw any valid conclusions.  In other words, our expectations as set by the Executive Orders might be affecting how we interpret the data.

Thanks to Nolan Rappaport for alerting me to this item.

PWS

03/21/17