Here’s a link to the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, courtesy of Dan Kowalski over at LexisNexis Immigration Community:

https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2021-17779.pdf

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And, here’s my “quick take:”

At first glance, this could potentially be a workable system, with some favorable aspects:

* Restores properly generous credible fear standard;

* Allows AO to grant well-established cases in first instance, even at the credible fear level, without referral to EOIR;

* Retains EOIR review of both credible fear and asylum denials;

* Doesn’t appear to affect pending and affirmative cases;

* Retains access to Circuit review of denials.

But, as with most things, the devil 👹 is in the details. And, personnel, leadership, direction, and accountability are absolute keys to success.

Without:

1) More and better Asylum Officers;

2) Far better training at the AO and EOIR (see, Michele Pistone);

3) Better IJs with proven expertise in asylum law and a demonstrated willingness to grant relief to worthy cases;

4) An entirely new BIA of progressive asylum experts to provide leadership, positive precedents, and accountability for both credible fear reviews and de novo asylum reviews;

5) An agreement with the private bar as to where and on what schedule these cases are to be heard, to achieve universal representation (see, Michele Pistone and VIISTA); and

6) Agreements with NGOs re housing, care, employment assistance to take pressure off particular communities;

this proposal appears to be “headed for failure.”

I can’t glean any of those essential characteristics from this NPR.

In their absence:

1) There are likely to be huge discrepancies in AO decisions;

2) Many current IJs, particularly from border areas, will simply “rubber stamp” both credible fear and asylum merits denials from the AO to keep the EOIR dockets moving and “make quota” (Lucas Guttentag, where are you?);

3) “Rubber stamping” of asylum denials is also endemic at the BIA, as currently comprised;

3) The current BIA will be reluctant to issue positive asylum precedents (not sure they even know how or have the ability to do so) and will likely concentrate on instructing AOs and the IJs on how to deny asylum or credible fear and have it stand up on review;

4) The private bar will be unable to keep up with the pro bono demand, causing many applicants to be unrepresented or underrepresented;

5) Asylum applicants will be concentrated in particular communities, often near the border, who will complain about the burdens being inflicted upon them by the Feds.

In other words, without better, expert, progressive leadership at both DHS and DOJ, and without major changes in personnel and training, this program will rapidly become a disaster, like other “streamlining” efforts that do not deal realistically with the practical aspects of implementation, particularly the qualifications, attitude, “culture,” and training of those making the actual decisions! A continuing lack of progressive leadership and expertise at the “retail level” will likely lead to widespread injustice, inconsistency, and eventually protracted litigation.

I am also concerned that the NPR appears to take the current 1.4 million case EOIR backlog (actually under-stated in the NPR as 1.3 million — Garland has grown it almost as rapidly as Barr-Sessions) as a “given.” But, there are readily available ways to dramatically slash this backlog by perhaps as much as 90% (see, Chen & Moskowitz plan) which would allow both IJs and the BIA to work on these cases “in real time” WITHOUT creating yet more “Aimless Docket Reshuffling” at EOIR (as the NPR, without the changes outlined above, is highly likely to do).

This leads me to reiterate Casey’s cosmic question: “Can’t anybody here play this game?” Ironically, there are many “all-star players” out here in the real world who can and would be “winners.” But, for whatever reason, to date, this Administration has unwisely chosen to leave most of them “on the sidelines” rather than giving them bats and gloves and putting them in the game. ⚾️ That’s painfully obvious at DOJ! Not a recipe for a “winning campaign” in my “preseason prediction.”

🇺🇸DPF,

Best,

PWS

08-18-21