http://www.wsj.com/articles/central-americans-surge-at-border-before-trump-takes-over-1482489047
This article from the Wall Street Journal suggests that the election of Donald Trump is helping fuel a new “border surge” of migrants anxious to get here before the “border closes.” While I’m sure that Trump’s election has had some effect “in the margins,” particularly as a marketing tool for human smugglers, I tend to doubt that the election has had a major impact. It’s fairly normal for law enforcement and policy officials to overestimate the effect of government policies and under-weigh the root causes of most human migration — conditions in foreign nations that are largely beyond our national control.
Take, for example, the Mariel Cuban Boatlift. While many attributed the cause to President Jimmy Carter’s famous (or infamous) “welcome them with open arms statement,” what actually fueled the migration was Fidel Castro’s unileateral decision to open the Cuban port of Mariel to northbound boats. I was working at the “Legacy INS” at that time. We seized boats (enough to start dozens of marinas), fined owners and operators, opened detention camps for new arrivals, recruited “Temporary Immigration Judges” to handle increased deportations and asylum claims, and instituted criminal prosecutions. But, the flow went on, largely unabated, until Castro decided to close the port of Mariel.
“‘It’s a humanitarian crisis, a drug crisis, a security crisis. We’re going to have to deal with that issue immediately,’ said a member of Mr. Trump’s transition team.” I think that’s correct — migration and border enforcement are complex issues usually with a large humanitarian component. Such problems are unlikely to be solved by building more walls and fences, installing more sensors, hiring more Border Patrol agents, or opening new detention centers.
PWS
12/25/16