Upset, schmupset, the four consecutive House races that Dems have lost in the “Trump” era are exactly the types of elections they are going to have to consistently win to retake power. Yes, it’s an improvement for our system when there are more competitive races, and it’s good for Dems that they are actually taking races in “GOP Territory” seriously.
But, in Georgia, the Democratic Candidate John Ossoff actually ran behind Hillary Clinton who narrowly lost the District to Trump. There was no GOP incumbent, and now-Rep. Karen Handel actually beat Ossoff by a very comfortable margin of almost 4 points.
I keep saying it. The strategy of counting on Trump to self-destruct, the inability of the GOP to govern, and criticism of the GOP’s “help the rich, stiff everyone else” agenda isn’t working any better in the post-election era than it did for Hillary. The Dems are leaderless, programless, and all too often clueless. Until that changes, the reign of Trump and one-party government in America is likely to continue, notwithstanding the polls and the media.
And, speaking of polls and the media, remember their performance in predicting the mood of America and the results of the 2016 election. Not much has changed.
PWS
06-21-17
It’s called kakistocracy and means government by the least able and most unscrupulous people. Citizens eventually feel powerless and ignored except briefly at election time, and react accordingly, voting for the candidate that most aggressively represents their tribe.
Alexis D’Tocqueville warned against it in his 1830s classic “Democracy in America” discussing it in its most quoted chapter “The Tyranny of the Majority”, although President John Adams is actually credited with first having coined the phrase.
When majorities develop a taste for economic benefits from laws against powerless minorities, two adversary trends mutually reinforce. The majority keeps profiting from policies like Slavery. And their adversaries become more militant like John Brown. Then the November choices become tribal representatives of the most extreme factions, instead of centrists within our two-party system.
Compromise seems treason because the other party is deemed inherently evil. And even successful compromises eventually fail because only the extremes get their priorities addressed making the compromise quickly obsolete. Consider the Compromise of 1850 which gave us the Kansas-Nebraska Act (Bloody Kansas) and the 1854 Fugitive Slave Act. All forewarned by D’Tocqueville.
Democrats in 2017 are trying to square the circle. Better pay and job security ultimately requires economic growth. But Democrats real enthusiasm is for Climate Change anti-growth policies and pay lip service to job-training placebos. The last thing laid off industrial workers want is to spend years training to compete against 18 year-olds using computers. Hillary’s announcing in a college campus in coal-producing Ohio that she was going to put the coal companies out of business best illustrates that tin-eared conceit. See http://money.cnn.com/…/hillary-clinton-coal-miners.cnnmoney/
Trump’s message to the voters was actually pretty simple:
1) More jobs;
2) Lower taxes;
3) No foreigners.
He had no details or specifics. When he did try to throw some out there, they were either nonsensical or demonstrably false. Yet, it was a simple, understandable message, and he just kept repeating it over and over.
What was Hillary’s “three point message” to voters? What is the Democrat’s “three point message” on how they would make things better now?
Also, regardless of their merits as politicians (both are skilled infighters) you are neither going to win a national election nor likely take back control of either house of Congress as long as Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi are you chief spokespersons. That’s asking folks to vote to reinstate the past, nationally unpopular, “old guard” failed leadership. Not going to happen.
So, somebody else is going to have to take charge. Maybe it’s Bernie, maybe it’s Liz. They have the same feistiness, “stump energy,” populist appeal, and media-ready personalities as Trump. But, to date, they can’t even sell their left leaning agenda to the majority of Dems, let alone the general electorate.
Leadership is often even more important than the nitty gritty of the issues. Until the Dems get some real leadership, their time in the wilderness is going to be long indeed, no matter how much Trump and the GOP screw up. The other guy’s mistakes don’t necessarily prove the case that you could do better. For some reason, the Dems just don’t seem to “get” that.
PWS
06-21-17
I agree that the Dems have been caught flat footed by the Trump phenomenon. During the campaign, election, and post election (except, perhaps, for a brief time just prior to the inauguration) Trump has never topped 50% in the polls. Yet, with the blind support of a hard core of 30-35% of the electorate, he won a comfortable electoral victory and continues to win key elections in the places here he needs to win. I have no reason to doubt that if the general election were held today, Trump would win another electoral victory, perhaps not as comfortable though.
Think about it. If 35% of the voters are committed to Trump no matter what he does, he only has to convince only 8-10% of the remaining 65% to win reelection. That’s only one of every 7 or 8 “non-core” voters. In other words, as he did with Hillary, Trump can play electoral politics with the Dems’ money. And leading with Pelosi & Schumer isn’t going to bring over many, if any, Trump voters.
PWS
06-22-16
We should not judge Trump’s likelihood of success solely on his unpopularity. Trump is not trying to run a typical American consensus administration. He can easily govern with the enthusiastic support of 30% of the population.
Most 20th Century “isms” proved that if you give that activist minority the power to allocate scarce local resources, a majority of people goes along to get along. Food, jobs, housing, educational opportunities, etc. When these needs become scarce and depend on the discretionary goodwill of a local official, people quickly learn the ropes and behave accordingly, even when they pay lip service to more idealistic government goals like tolerance, inclusiveness, etc. And there is a huge army of busybodies eager to allocate their neighbors goodies.
Perhaps that is the “secret sauce” behind the Trumpian strategy if the GOP Health Plan passes. Local mandarins administering declining Medicaid funds, without federal supervision to insure both inclusiveness and overall fairness. Separate but equal redux.
Or maybe that is just the overall strategy of the rest of the GOP while Trump remains President. Tax Cuts! Big Ones! Cut benefits. Trump seems happy to take victory laps and say whatever pops into his head regardless. And his supporters are happy with slogans that do not exceed Twitter’s 140 characters.
As George Orwell said in a quote often used by Ron Paul, “Truth is treason in an empire of lies”. That’s why Trump calls our free press “enemies of the people”. Democrats are correct in constantly pointing out that Emperor Trump has no clothes. But they also have to convince the majority who just “goes along” that they have a plan when the majority asks “what’s in it for me”.