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One of the most depressing things I’ve seen recently is folks from Alabama — some of them so-called “Christians” — defending “Ayatollah Roy” and indicating an intent to vote for this truly horrible individual whose candidacy mocks Christian values, American ideals, and the very foundations of our democracy.
PWS
11-12-17
From 538.com today at https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-roy-moore-could-lose-alabamas-senate-race/
HOW TO AVOID ANOTHER EMBARRASSMENT: Hillary won in 2016: small, rural, heavily black counties in central Alabama’s Black Belt. Also large cities, Montgomery and Birmingham. That’s 34% of the overall vote. Where can Jones get more votes? Look at the September GOP primary between Moore and GOP Sen. Strange. Many didn’t support Moore at first, and may vote against Moore or just stay home. Moore won the primary, but narrowly (9%) He lost badly to Sen.Strange in Birmingham (17%), and next to Huntsville, the Marshall Space Flight Center and one University of Alabama campus. More college grads.
2012: Moore won Chief Justice, Alabama Supreme Court for 2nd time, by less than 4%. Democrat, Bob Vance, won huge in Birmingham (26%) heavily black Montgomery (42%), Huntsville, the Black Belt and Mobile. Less evangelical and more black What to Watch for on Special Election Day December 12, 2017. The path for Jones to win is probably:
1.Hold down Moore’s margin in rural areas or depress turnout.
2.Win by overwhelming margin in the majority-black counties.
3.Win big in Birmingham, Huntsville, Mobile and Montgomery.
I like your analysis, Gus! Let’s hope Jones’s campaign is on top of it. Not only would it be good for the country if Jones won, but it would be good for Alabama to become a “player” rather than an “extremist outlier” contributing nothing but negativity to the national dialogue. That’s what Sessions —the symbol of negativity and a return to Jim Crow — did. He indeed was always the “weirdest guy in the room” until Ayatollah Roy entered.
PWS
11-13-17
Thanks. But 1st, it is just my summary of the analysis of 538.com. experts. That said, my sincere belief is that we are living at a crucial juncture when the views of Women, 53% of USA adults, are effectively determinative.
As we often heard, it’s not an event, it’s a process. And now is happening for Humankind. Watch the video of Afghan girls for the first time running Marathons. Giggling, happy. But until this year women running in public was punished severely. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTjEEbSgamM
We all have daughters, we treat them with respect, and sexual predators like Moore and admittedly Trump, do not belong in public office. History is handing American women America’s Steering Wheel. As you know I’m a great believer on Fourth Turning Generations like our kids, the Millenials.
Per “Four Turners”, every 4 USA generations, approximately 80 years, a heroic generation makes a lot of changes because they have to clean up a lot of mess from the 3 preceding types.
1. French and Indian War (7 Year War) convinced us we were Americans, not British anymore. Differing interests led to the 1776 War for American Independence Generation.
2. 1856 generation lived the Civil War + USA consequent Industrialization, railroads building communities.
3. 1936 Generation lived Great Depression + WWII a/k/a “Greatest Generation”. Enough said.
It’s our millenial kids time in 2017. Specially our girls. The Roy Moore types have no chance. You can make a pretty good case that even if Moore is elected, then rejected, is better because it reflects badly on Alabama and our “Bitter Third”. Moore is a walking advertisement against the GOP in the 2018 midterms.