Deportations Down in 2016 — Focus on Criminals in the Interior is Key — But, Some Question Gov’s Broad Concept of “Criminal”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/barack-obama-deportations-2016_us_58668157e4b0eb5864890a03?section=us_politics

“DHS officials themselves say the falling interior deportation numbers reflect the Obama administration’s policy of focusing their efforts on removing people with criminal histories.

Virtually all of the people deported from within the interior of the United States ― 92 percent ― had been convicted of a crime that put them within one of ICE’s top three priorities for removal.

But ICE’s top priority removal category includes people convicted of the offenses of illegal entry and reentry ― non-violent crimes that don’t distinguish them much from other undocumented immigrants. DHS officials did not immediately provide a breakdown of the criminal offenses deportees had been convicted of.

The number of deportations has also dropped in recent years partly because the number of people trying to enter the country has plummeted. Border Patrol apprehended about 408,900 people in the 2016 fiscal year, which is generally considered an indicator of how many people attempted to enter without authorization. In 2000, agents picked up nearly 1.7 million people trying to cross the border illegally.

A growing share of those who do cross illegally into the United States are Central Americans, who often seek asylum or other humanitarian relief. Their cases can take years to wind their way through backlogged immigration courts and do not result in swift deportations. In 2016, border agents apprehended more Central Americans than they did Mexicans, a switch that happened for the first time in 2014.”

PWS

12/30/16

Writing In “The Hill,” BIA and Congressional Staff Vet Nolan Rappaport Says Trump Must Combine Legalization With Interior Enforcement to Succeed

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/immigration/311994-thanks-to-obamas-immigration-legacy-trump-inherits-our-home

“As of the end of Nov. 2016, the average wait time for a hearing was 678 days. President-elect Trump will have to reduce the population of undocumented immigrants to a manageable level with a very large legalization program before he will be able to address the home free magnet.

Also, so long as immigrants who want to come here illegally think that they will be safe from deportation once they have reached the interior, they will find a way to get past any wall that he builds to protect our border.”

Nolan’s thoughtful article gives a great summary of the prosecutorial discretion (“PD”) programs put into effect by the Obama Administration.  Although Nolan is is OK with the concept of PD, he believes that by formalizing and publicizing the PD program, the Obama Administration has given a “home free” signal to undocumented migrants who reach the interior of our country.  Nolan believes that this acts as both a magnet for undocumented immigration and a barrier to effective immigration reform legislation.

I agree with Nolan that removal of most of those with cases backlogged on the Immigration Court dockets will prove impractical.  I also agree with him that the huge backlogs and lengthy waiting times for hearings have robbed the Immigration Court system of credibilty.  But, with due respect, I tend to doubt that addressing “the home free magnet” is the primary answer to a workable system.

First, I think that human migration is an historic phenomenon driven primarily by forces in sending countries which we do not control.  Addressing the “root causes” of these problems has proved elusive.  Efforts to provide assistance through foreign governments have been largely unsuccessful because of endemic corruption and lack of the necessary infrastructure.  Efforts administered by the State Department and USAID within foreign countries have shown some promise, as described in one of my earlier blogs (12/26/16).  Yet, to date, they appear to be too labor intensive and too limited in the number of individuals who can be reached to have a major effect on migration patterns.

Additionally, I doubt that migration will be controlled without legislative changes and expansion of our legal immigration system to better match supply with demand.  Currently, the demand for immigration by U.S. citizen and lawfully resident families, U.S. employers, and displaced or threatened individuals in foreign countries far exceeds the supply of available visas.  Continued immigration is a reality and, in fact, a necessity for our nation’s prosperity.  Until there is a better balance between supply and demand, individuals will, as Nolan suggests, continue to breach any walls or interdiction systems that we can construct.  And, differing from Nolan, history shows that they also will evade interior enforcement efforts which, in any event, will prove to be costly, ineffective, disruptive, and unacceptable from a civil liberties standpoint.

Yes, I know this isn’t what folks, particularly those “outside the Beltway,” want to hear.  But, the fact that my message might be unpopular in today’s climate doesn’t necessarily mean that I’m wrong.

Immigration is a complicated issue that will require thoughtful, creative, cooperative, and human-oriented solutions.  Merely doubling down on enforcement, whether popular or not, will not give us control over human migration.

On an historical note, I greatly appreciate Nolan’s citation and link to the July 15, 1976 memorandum on prosecutorial discretion from INS General Counsel Sam Bernsen to Commissioner Chapman, which I wrote.  Go to the link and check out the initials at the end.  Oh, for the “good old days” of “real” carbon copies!

PWS 12/28/16

 

From Huffington Post: Here Is What Life (For those Lucky Enough to Survive) is Like in Rivera Hernandez, Honduras, One of the Most Dangerous Places in the World, Where the U.S. State Department and the USAID Are Working to Reduce Migration Push Forces At Their Roots — How Dangerous Is The Gang Violence That Forces Families to Flee to the US? — Check Out This Quote (Not For the Squeamish)!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/honduras-gang-violence-teenagers_us_585d6274e4b0d9a59458288d

“It’s Christmas week in Rivera Hernandez, a place that’s been described as one of the most dangerous neighborhoods in the world. How dangerous? About two weeks ago, and not that far from this street party, a young woman’s seminude body was found underneath a tree ― just her body. The 18-year-old’s head was resting on a branch a few feet above her corpse. The neighborhood consensus, whispered quietly, is that this latest horror was most likely a message from one of the five gangs that have divided much of Rivera Hernandez into fiefdoms.”

No wonder families are making the dangerous journey to seek asylum in the U.S.  And, not surprisingly, they aren’t “deterred” by walls, fences, detention centers, asylum denials, removals, or the dangers of the journey.  Not to mention that individuals fleeing for their lives have a right under U.S. and international law to seek asylum at our borders or within the U.S.

I had plenty of situations involving fears of this type of grotesque harm, in Central America and elsewhere, come before me at the Arlington Immigration Court and the BIA.  Yes, it would be great if there were more efforts like the State Department/USAID programs described here to solve the root causes of migration and create incentives for individuals to remain in, and prosper, in their home countries.  But, that’s going to take a much larger investment than we’ve made to date.

PWS

12/25/16

Is President Elect Trump Causing a “New Border Surge?”

http://www.wsj.com/articles/central-americans-surge-at-border-before-trump-takes-over-1482489047

This article from the Wall Street Journal suggests that the election of Donald Trump is helping fuel a new “border surge” of migrants anxious to get here before the “border closes.” While I’m sure that Trump’s election has had some effect “in the margins,” particularly as a marketing tool for human smugglers, I tend to doubt that the election has had a major impact. It’s fairly normal for law enforcement and policy officials to overestimate the effect of government policies and under-weigh the root causes of most human migration — conditions in foreign nations that are largely beyond our national control.

Take, for example, the Mariel Cuban Boatlift. While many attributed the cause to President Jimmy Carter’s famous (or infamous) “welcome them with open arms statement,” what actually fueled the migration was Fidel Castro’s unileateral decision to open the Cuban port of Mariel to northbound boats. I was working at the “Legacy INS” at that time. We seized boats (enough to start dozens of marinas), fined owners and operators, opened detention camps for new arrivals, recruited “Temporary Immigration Judges” to handle increased deportations and asylum claims, and instituted criminal prosecutions. But, the flow went on, largely unabated, until Castro decided to close the port of Mariel.

“‘It’s a humanitarian crisis, a drug crisis, a security crisis. We’re going to have to deal with that issue immediately,’ said a member of Mr. Trump’s transition team.” I think that’s correct — migration and border enforcement are complex issues usually with a large humanitarian component. Such problems are unlikely to be solved by building more walls and fences, installing more sensors, hiring more Border Patrol agents, or opening new detention centers.

PWS

12/25/16

THERE IS NO “IMMIGRATION CRISIS” – U.S. POPULATION STABLE – MIGRATION WELL WITHIN HISTORIC LEVELS — IMMIGRATION FUELS A GREAT FUTURE FOR THE U.S.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/social-issues/us-population-growth-is-lower-than-at-any-time-since-the-great-depression/2016/12/21/5267e480-c7ae-11e6-85b5-76616a33048d_story.html?utm_term=.188da004f316

This article from today’s Washington Post confirms what many of us already knew – there is no “immigration crisis” in America. Rather, our aging population is stable, and immigration (despite a modest uptick since the recession) remains within historic norms. This ties in with respected demographer Robert Warren’s research and conclusion that notwithstanding the so-called “Border Surge” beginning in 2014, U.S. immigration has remained well within historic norms (link below).

Today’s article also states “the United States will need to invest in immigrants who are helping to shore up the younger segment of the labor force.” In other words, we “geezers” are going to need a continuing flow of immigrants to support Social Security and Medicare, as well as to take jobs as nursing assistants, home health care workers, and caretakers for the elderly that few Americans seem to want. When was the last time you heard a high school student say that he or she aspired to a career as a home health care provider – although I see such individuals daily in our neighborhood and know that they are providing essential services to my neighbors in need?

This also fits in with an article in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal pointing out how Latino entrepreneurs and businesspeople – some of them immigrants – have become a key economic force propelling our future greatness as a nation (see below).

Sure, deporting serious criminals from the United States is a worthy goal and one that I have personally participated in to the extent appropriate under law. The current Administration has done as good job of this.  Some would say too good a job, and that cases of relatively minor, non-violent offenders with crimes such as petty theft, receiving stolen property, or possession of marijuana or cocaine, should not have been pushed into an already overcrowded Immigration Court System.

But, the foregoing article suggests to me that rather than fixating on how we might get rid of millions of other undocumented migrants who are law abiding contributors to our society, or looking to further restrict legal immigration as some have advocated, we should be modifying our laws to create additional opportunities for legal immigration that would serve our country’s future.  Moreover, a larger and more rational legal system, with shorter waiting periods, would encourage individuals to “use the system” rather than attempting to circumvent it.

PWS

12/23/16

http://cmsny.org/warren-immigration-surge-illusory/

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-latino-drivers-of-economic-growth-1482363118