🏈😢 ENDGAME: 49ERS LATE TD DRIVE HALTS PACK’S PLAYOFF RUN — 24-21

By Paul Wickham Schmidt

Special to Courtside Sports

Jan 21, 1024

With the rain pouring down in San Francisco, QB Brock Purdy & RB Christian McCaffrey ended the Green Bay Packers’ unlikely Super Bowl run in what was to date the most thrilling game of the NFL Playoffs. There were five lead changes, four in the second half. But, the only one that counted was McCaffrey’s six yard TD run with 1:07 remaining that proved the difference. 

For much of the game, it seemed that, riding a great performance by RB Aaron Jones (18-107-0), the #7-seed Packers would follow last Sunday’s upset of #2 Dallas by shocking the #1-seed 49ers on the latter’s home field. Jones turned in his fifth straight clutch 100-yard-plus  effort, all in “must-win games.” In doing so, he broke the 49ers’ streak of 51 games without allowing a 100-yard rusher. 

But, alas, a trip to the NFC Championship game was not to be for Jones’s team. Here’s my analysis of why the Packers came up short and what the future might hold. 

1. Red Zone inefficiency.  

After going 4-4 against Dallas, the Packer offense actually had little trouble reaching the red zone against the formidable SF defense. They made five trips to scoring territory and only punted once.

However, once “in the zone,” it was a different story. Green Bay only scored two TDs, settling for two field goals and a turnover on downs in the other three possessions, all in the first half. The turnover came on what looked to be a bad spot by the referees following a Jordan Love sneak on fourth and one. However, there was not “conclusive video evidence” for Coach Matt LaFleur to throw the challenge flag.

Leaving a potential 15 points on the field proved fatal in a 3-point game against an outstanding opponent.  

2. Jordan Love’s streak of near perfection ended with two key interceptions.

In the nine games heading into this divisional matchup, Love threw incredible 21 TD passes and only one pick. With the heavily-favored 49ers having a talent edge over the Pack, Love needed another near-perfect performance to give his team a chance for the upset. Unfortunately, he couldn’t deliver. Love threw beautifully for two TDs and a two-point conversion, but was undone by his mistakes down the stretch.

Late in the third quarter, the Packers led 21-14 with a chance to go up two scores on the home team. Facing a third and eleven near midfield, Love threw high and was picked by linebacker Dre Greenlaw who returned it to the Pack 48. Greenlaw turned out to be a more of a game-changing force than his more hyped line backing mate Fred Warner.

The Green Bay defense actually rose to the occasion, forcing a 52-yard field goal attempt by Jake Moody who had an earlier kick blocked.This time, Moody was good. Instead of being down two scores, SF now trailed by less than a TD — a difference that ultimately was “outcome determinative.”

Nevertheless, following the 49ers go ahead TD, Love had the ball at the Packer 25 with 1:07 left, three timeouts, and a chance to drive the Packers to a tying field goal or a winning TD. But, on first and ten at the Pack 36, Love made a disastrous decision to force a cross body, cross field throw that was easily picked by Greenlaw again, effectively ending the  Packers’ season. After 157.2 last week, Love’s 72.4 QB rating last night was disappointing, to say the least.

3.  Unreliable kicking.

As I mentioned in last week’s wrap up, Packer fans worried about the inconsistency of rookie kicker Anders Carlson, who led the league in missed kicks, including six missed extra points. Those worries came to fruition under the lights at Levi’s Stadium. For most of the season, Green Bay was able to “work around” Carlson’s blips. Not last night.

After the 49ers closed the gap to four, the Packers drove the ball to the SF 23 with a chance to stretch their cushion back to 7. But, Carlson’s kick from the 31 was wide left with 6:21 to go. Purdy and his team took over at the 31 and drove for the winning TD.

4. Defense didn’t make the “big stop.”

Overall, the defense did a good job of controlling Purdy and the star-studded SF offense. But, with the game on the line on the final 49er drive, they failed to get that “big stop” that could have put them in the NFC Championship game. 

The “back-breaker” was allowing Purdy (157 career rushing yards), whom nobody would confuse with Lamar Jackson, to “beat them with his legs” by rushing nine yards to the Packer six to set up McCaffrey’s winning TD on the next play.

Unlike last week, when the defense picked off Dak Prescott twice (one for a TD), Purdy had no interceptions. But, it wasn’t for lack of trying. Purdy hit several Packer defenders on their hands, including what likely would have been a pick six for Darnell Savage repeating his big play from last week.

In a three-point loss, missed opportunities loomed large.

5. Wasting another stellar performance from Aaron Jones.

Jones actually made it look almost easy against SF’s “shutdown” run defense. Had the Packers held on to win, he would have been my MVP!

With the Packers backed up on their own 10 midway through the third quarter, Jones ripped of a 53-yard-run to the 49er 37. At that point, with Green Bay up by four, it had all the ear marks of being a game-winning drive. But, the drive stalled at the 23, and Carlson’s missed FG ended what proved to be the Pack’s last venture into enemy territory.

Wait till next year

There is no shame in losing to the high-powered, well-coached, heavily-favored 49ers in the playoffs. Just ask future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers who failed to prevail in four tries. By any account, with the youngest team in the league, Love and the Pack far exceeded expectations this year, particularly following a 3-6 start. 

There are reasons to be optimistic that with a year of experience under their belts, Love and his young receiving corps will be able to return to the playoffs next season. “Lost in the shuffle” was the consistently outstanding play of the Green Bay offensive line down the stretch. Although Love was pressured on some occasions, he was not sacked by a really good defense. There were some good sized holes opened for Jones And, as mentioned several times by the network announcers, the receivers showed that they could do more than catch by laying down some critical blocks to help spring Jones and other team-mates. 

Additionally, getting a team that had the look of a potential “bottom-dweller” at mid-season into the playoffs might have been Matt LaFleur’s most impressive coaching feat yet in a relatively short, highly successful head coaching career, all with Green Bay.

There are also some factors that might give fans pause. Will Love be able to put last night’s hiccup behind him and move on? Will the young receivers continue to develop? 

I appreciate LaFleur’s commitment to his rookie kicker Carlson. But, if the Pack seek to become a “perennial contender” with Love in today’s NFL, they need consistency from their kicker. Strong legs like Carlson are important, but accuracy is paramount. I don’t have a problem with giving Carlson another shot. But, the results must improve.

The Packers’ stretch run showed the great value of Aaron Jones. When he is healthy, I still think he is the most dangerous running back in the league. Having Jones in the backfield certainly enabled Love to elevate his performance. 

But, Jones missed a number of mid-season games with injuries, a problem throughout his career. Without Jones, the running game struggled. And, the Packers have not to date found a reliable backup. Despite some promise, A.J. Dillion has not proved to be effective as a number one back and ended the season out with injuries. 

Then, there is the schedule. Having seen what Love and the receiving corps can do during the playoff run, the rest of the league will be prepared. This year, the Packers played a relatively “soft” schedule, facing only six eventual playoff teams against which they were a respectable 3-3. Next year’s  opponents, however, include seven teams that made the playoffs and several others who were in contention till the end. 

Within the North Division, the Lions will again be the favorites. But, the Bears have the number one draft pick and figure to be more competitive. Also, the Vikings will be better if they are able to bring back Kirk Cousins, whose injury gave them an unpleasant look at the alternatives. Say what you like about his lack of playoff success, “Captain Kirk” is one of the most prolific regular season passers in the league who is 7-4 lifetime against the Pack. No defensive coordinator relishes the sight of having the Vikes #8 trot into the huddle. 

All in all, it was an unexpectedly interesting, sometimes exhilarating, season for the green and gold. Whether, as those of us in Packer Nation hope, it proves to be a harbinger of greater things to come, or just another of those “oh so close, but no cigar” moments remains to be seen. Stay tuned.

In the meantime, congratulations to the 49ers and Coach Kyle Shanahan. SF and GB have now played a record 10 playoff games with the 49ers holding a 6-4 edge after winning the last five. Good luck to them as they continue their Super Bowl quest.