“Where does Donald Trump rank on the list of American presidents?
We surveyed presidential politics experts to sketch out a first draft of Trump’s place in presidential history.
Since our previous survey in 2014, some presidential legacies have soared (Barack Obama’s stock has climbed into the Top 10), while others have fallen (Andrew Jackson toppled to 15, out of the Top 10).
And President Trump? Let’s say that, according to the 170 members of the American Political Science Association’s Presidents and Executive Politics section who filled out our survey, he has at least three years to improve on an ignominious debut.
Presidential Greatness Rankings
James Buchanan, who was at the helm as the United States careened into civil war, was dislodged from his position as our nation’s worst president by our current president, Trump.
His Oval Office predecessor, Barack Obama, shot into the Top 10, up from 18th in the previous survey. Ulysses S. Grant also got a bump, up seven places from 2014, perhaps owing to a strong assist from Ron Chernow’s recent masterpiece.
The biggest declines were for Bill Clinton, arguably the result of contemporary scorn for his treatment of women, and Andrew Jackson, for evolving attitudes on his treatment of Native Americans.
Overall rankings.
Presidents since World War II in boldface.
Presidents whose rank changed since last survey
0 = FAILURE
50 = AVERAGE
100 = GREAT
2014 RANK
CHANGE
IN RANKING
UP OR
DOWN
TOP 10 IN 2018
1. Lincoln
95
2. Washington
93
3. F.D. Roosevelt
89
4. T. Roosevelt
81
5. Jefferson
80
6. Truman
75
7. Eisenhower
74
8. Obama
71
8. Clinton
–5
9. Reagan
69
9. Jackson
–6
10. L.B. Johnson
69
10. Wilson
–1
11. Wilson
67
11. Reagan
+2
12. Madison
64
12. L.B. Johnson
+2
13. Clinton
64
13. Madison
+1
14. J. Adams
63
14. Kennedy
–2
15. Jackson
62
15. J. Adams
+1
16. Kennedy
62
16. Monroe
–2
17. G.H.W. Bush
61
18. Monroe
61
18. Obama
+10
19. McKinley
55
19. Polk
–1
20. Polk
54
20. Taft
–2
21. Grant
53
21. McKinley
+2
22. Taft
52
22. J.Q. Adams
–1
23. J.Q. Adams
52
23. Cleveland
–1
24. Cleveland
51
24. Ford
–1
25. Ford
47
25. Van Buren
–2
26. Carter
45
27. Van Buren
44
27. Coolidge
–1
28. Coolidge
42
28. Grant
+7
29. Hayes
42
29. B. Harrison
–3
30. G.W. Bush
40
30. Hayes
+1
31. Arthur
40
31. Garfield
–3
32. B. Harrison
38
32. Arthur
+1
33. Nixon
37
33. Taylor
–2
34. Garfield
37
34. Nixon
+1
BOTTOM 10
35. Taylor
33
35. G.W. Bush
+5
36. Hoover
33
36. Tyler
–1
37. Tyler
31
37. Fillmore
–1
38. Fillmore
28
38. Hoover
+2
39. Harding
25
39. W.H. Harrison
–3
40. A. Johnson
25
40. Pierce
–1
41. Pierce
23
41. A. Johnson
+1
42. W.H. Harrison
19
42. Harding
+3
43. Buchanan
15
44. Trump
12
Methodology: Each expert was invited to rate each president on a 0-100 scale, with 0 = failure, 50 = average, and 100 = great. Scores were then averaged for each president, with presidents then ranked in order of highest average to lowest.Greatness Rankings by Party
On partisan-votes lines, Democrats ranked Ronald Reagan nine places lower than Republicans, while Democrats place Obama 10 places higher.
Counting only Republican votes, William McKinley — best known for winning the Spanish-American war, for defeating William Jennings Bryan twice in contests for the White House and for being assassinated by the anarchist Leon Czolgosz — holds a spot in the Top 10.
Independents admire George H.W. Bush, ranking him higher than Obama.
Trump doesn’t get much of a lift from Republican-only vote: Even in their eyes, he’s a bottom-five president.
Democratic scholars
Independents/other
Republican scholars
Presidents since World War II in boldface.
These scholars skew somewhat to the right.
TOP 10
0
AVG.
100
0
AVG.
100
0
AVG.
100
1. Washington
94
1. Lincoln
96
1. Lincoln
94
2. Lincoln
94
2. F.D. Roosevelt
94
2. Washington
91
3. F.D. Roosevelt
83
3. Washington
93
3. F.D. Roosevelt
83
4. T. Roosevelt
77
4. T. Roosevelt
83
4. T. Roosevelt
79
5. Reagan
76
5. Jefferson
82
5. Jefferson
79
6. Jefferson
70
6. Obama
78
6. Eisenhower
77
7. Eisenhower
68
7. Truman
78
7. Reagan
75
8. Truman
67
8. L.B. Johnson
75
8. Truman
74
9. McKinley
64
9. Eisenhower
74
9. Madison
65
10. Jackson
64
10. Wilson
72
10. J. Adams
64
11. G.H.W. Bush
63
11. Madison
67
11. G.H.W. Bush
64
12. Wilson
61
12. Kennedy
67
12. Obama
63
13. Polk
60
13. Clinton
66
13. L.B. Johnson
63
14. Taft
60
14. Reagan
65
14. Clinton
62
15. Clinton
59
15. J. Adams
64
15. Wilson
62
16. Obama
57
16. Monroe
62
16. McKinley
61
17. J. Adams
57
17. Jackson
62
17. Jackson
61
18. Monroe
56
18. G.H.W. Bush
59
18. Monroe
60
19. L.B. Johnson
56
19. Grant
53
19. Kennedy
58
20. Cleveland
55
20. J.Q. Adams
53
20. Taft
56
21. Coolidge
52
21. Polk
52
21. Polk
56
22. Madison
52
22. McKinley
50
22. Grant
54
23. G.W. Bush
52
23. Cleveland
49
23. Cleveland
54
24. Kennedy
50
24. Carter
48
24. J.Q. Adams
52
25. Grant
49
25. Taft
48
25. Coolidge
50
26. Ford
49
26. Ford
46
26. Ford
49
27. J.Q. Adams
49
27. Van Buren
44
27. Van Buren
47
28. Hayes
44
28. Hayes
39
28. Hayes
45
29. Nixon
42
29. Arthur
39
29. Arthur
44
30. Hoover
41
30. G.W. Bush
37
30. Garfield
42
31. B. Harrison
39
31. Nixon
37
31. G.W. Bush
42
32. Carter
39
32. B. Harrison
36
32. Carter
41
33. Van Buren
38
33. Coolidge
36
33. B. Harrison
40
34. Arthur
36
34. Garfield
34
34. Taylor
37
Lighter circles = below average
BOTTOM 10
35. Garfield
36
35. Taylor
31
35. Hoover
37
36. Taylor
34
36. Tyler
31
36. Nixon
36
37. Tyler
33
37. Hoover
29
37. Tyler
32
38. Harding
32
38. A. Johnson
27
38. Fillmore
30
39. Fillmore
29
39. Fillmore
26
39. Harding
26
40. Trump
25
40. Pierce
24
40. Pierce
25
41. A. Johnson
21
41. Harding
23
41. A. Johnson
23
42. Pierce
19
42. W.H. Harrison
19
42. W.H. Harrison
19
43. W.H. Harrison
19
43. Buchanan
16
43. Trump
16
44. Buchanan
14
44. Trump
8
44. Buchanan
14
Methodology: Each expert was allowed to self-identify as either Republican, Democrat, Independent, or Other. The results of those who self-identified were later analyzed independently to allow comparisons across partisan groups.Next on Mt. Rushmore
Which president deserves to have his likeness carved next into Mt. Rushmore’s granite cliff? Franklin Delano Roosevelt was the overwhelming favorite, selected by two-thirds of our respondents.
Franklin
Roosevelt
Barack
Obama
James
Madison
Lyndon
Johnson
66%
7
5
4
4
2
2
10
Others
Ronald
Reagan
Dwight
Eisenhower
William
McKinley
Methodology: Respondents were asked if they were to add one president to those currently represented on Mt. Rushmore, who would it be, and then allowed to select any past or current president. The number and percentage of times each president was selected was then calculated.Mt. Rushmore by Party
It wasn’t just Democratic support that would carve F.D.R. on Mt. Rushmore: All groups, including Republicans, named him as most deserving of that honor.
Roosevelt, the godfather of presidential liberalism, received more than twice as many votes from Republicans as Ronald Reagan, his conservative counterpart.
Democratic scholars’ vote:
Barack
Obama
Lyndon
Johnson
James
Madison
Franklin
Roosevelt
75%
11
3
3
8
Others
Independent/others’ vote:
Ronald
Reagan
Dwight
Eisenhower
William
McKinley
Franklin
Roosevelt
57%
9
9
6
19
Others
Republicans’ vote:
Ronald
Reagan
James
Madison
Franklin
Roosevelt
43%
19
10
29
Others
Methodology: Using the previously discussed self-identified partisanship breakdowns, the number and percentage of times each partisan group selected each president was calculated in the same way as the overall results.Trump’s initial rating places him in an ignominious category, but dozens of presidents have had slow starts and have course corrected to improve their public esteem. Beyond his reputation or ranking, Donald Trump’s very presidency may alter perceptions of presidential legacies as his unique approach to the office continues to surprise.
Brandon Rottinghaus is a professor of political science at the University of Houston. Justin S. Vaughn is an associate professor of political science and director of the Center for Idaho History and Politics at Boise State University.
