politics – Page 289 – immigrationcourtside.com

Julia Preston (Retired From The NYT, Now At The Marshall Project) Explains Trump’s Immigration Executive Orders

https://www.themarshallproject.org/2017/02/03/decoding-trump-s-immigration-orders?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share-tools&utm_source=facebook&utm_content=post-top#.aYfs86zr3

“The refugee program was not the only part of the immigration system that sustained shocks this week from three executive orders by President Donald Trump. While the White House scrambled to contain the widening furor over his ban on refugees and immigrants from seven Muslim-majority countries, the administration was laying the groundwork for a vast expansion of the nation’s deportation system. How vast? Here’s a close reading of Trump’s orders:”

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Read Julia’s full analysis at the link.

Not to beat a dead horse, but it’s hard to resist. To show what a “parallel universe” executives at the EOIR live in, the article says that without the Trump priorities EOIR believes it could have begun to reduce the backlog with 330 Immigration Judges (they currently have 305, and approximately 370 are authorized). What!!!!

Math wasn’t my strong point, but let’s do some basics here. There are more than 530,000 currently pending cases in the U.S. Immigration Courts. An experienced fully trained, fully productive Immigration Judge (which none of the new Immigration Judges will be for several years, if then) can do a reasonable job on at best 750 cases per year. So, 330 fully trained Immigration Judges might be able to do approximately 250,000 cases per year without stomping on individuals’ due process rights. That’s barely enough to keep up with the normal (pre-Trump Administration) annual filings of new cases, let alone make realistic progress on a one half million backlog.

But, even that would be highly optimistic. The real minimum number of Immigration Judges needed to keep the system afloat and “guarantee fairness and due process for all,” even without the distorted Trump priorities, is 500 Immigration Judges as determined by the consensus of “outside-EOIR/DOJ management” observers. And, that’s not even considering that many of the best and most experienced Immigration Judges will be retiring over the next few years.

So, even without the Trump Executive Orders, EOIR executives were living in a dream world that had little relationship to what is happening at the “retail level” of the system, in the Immigration Courts. And, because none of the folks who sit in the EOIR HQ “Tower” in Falls Church, well intentioned as they might be, actually hear and decide cases in the Immigration Courts, the gap between reality and bureaucracy at EOIR is simply off the charts!

This system needs help, and it needs it fast! The DOJ and EOIR, as currently structured and operated, simply cannot solve the real problems of one of America’s largest, most important, most under-resourced, and most out off control court systems. Unless the Trump Administration and Congress can “get smart” in a hurry and pull together on legislation to get the Immigration Courts out of the DOJ and into an independent Article I structure, this system is heading for a monumental due process train wreck that could threaten to take the rest of the U.S. justice system along with it.

PWS

02/06/17

BREAKING: WashPost: 9th Circuit Schedules Oral Argument On Trump Administration’s Stay Request For Tomorrow (Tuesday, Feb. 7) AT 6 PM (EST)!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/opposition-to-trump-travel-ban-grows-as-key-court-decision-looms/2017/02/06/d766ec7c-ec74-11e6-9662-6eedf1627882_story.html?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_trumpban-1120am:homepage/story&utm_term=.c219ca3156ae

The Washington Post reports tonight:

“A federal appeals court will hear arguments Tuesday at 6 p.m. Eastern on whether to restore President Trump’s controversial immigration order, which a lower court judge has temporarily put on hold.

The scheduling of the hearing came as Justice Department lawyers on Monday made what is likely their final pitch to a federal appeals court to immediately restore President Trump’s controversial immigration order, while tech companies, law professors and former high-ranking national security officials joined a mushrooming legal campaign to keep the measure suspended.

“The Executive Order is a lawful exercise of the President’s authority over the entry of aliens into the United States and the admission of refugees,” Justice Department lawyers wrote.”

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According to NBC 4 News tonight, the DOJ also has a “Plan B” up its sleeve to present to the Ninth Circuit: limit the scope of Judge Robart’s TRO to those already in the U.S.

As I emphasized to my students at Georgetown Law, when dealing with asylum and immigration issues, “It’s always wise to have Plan B.”

For those who want to tune in to the oral argument tomorrow, it’s streaming live on the 9th Circuit’s website: https://www.ca9.uscourts.gov/

PWS

02/06/17

WashPost Politics: Chris Cillizza & Sally Quinn Put Trump Into NBA Context — It’s Chris Paul Guarding Steph Curry!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/what-chris-paul-and-steph-curry-can-teach-us-about-president-trump/2017/02/05/0c9c161a-ebb2-11e6-b7e8-df81bd6c4c30_story.html?utm_term=.b3a333c3e4fb

Chris Cillizza writes in “The Monday Fix:”

“The best unified theory of Trump I’ve come across is by Sally Jenkins, the legendary Washington Post sports reporter and columnist. Here’s Sally’s explanation of Trump from a tweet last week “An old sports strategy: foul so much in the 1st 5 min of the game that the refs can’t call them all. From then on, a more physical game.”

If you think about the first 14 (or so) days of the Trump presidency through that lens, it starts to make a lot of sense.”

. . . .

But if Jenkins is right — and I suspect she is — then that outrage, those protests, those skittish Republicans will all dissipate, or diminish, as Trump’s presidency goes on. What feels like line-pushing now will seem normal sometime soon. By pushing so hard so fast, Trump is redefining what he can do and how the political establishment, and the country at large, will react.”

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Foul early, foul often, upset your opponent, challenge the refs, and stretch the rules to the max. We’ll see whether it works as well in politics as it does on the court.

PWS

02/06/17

Washington Post: A Syrian Refugee Family In “Trump Country” Finds Welcome, Kindness, Acceptance In The Heartland — Changing Views & Opinions One Human Being At A Time!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-nebraska-syrian-refugees-find-a-warm-and-welcoming-community/2017/02/05/5615c82a-eb9b-11e6-9973-c5efb7ccfb0d_story.html?utm_term=.5ee1be67db1f

Robert Samuels writes:

“Here in deeply conservative Nebraska, President Trump’s executive order banning refugees and people from seven majority-Muslim nations elicited complicated feelings about the state’s relationship with refugees. Many Nebraskans had supported attempts to keep the country safe but still wanted to show their heart for people fleeing terrorism and war. Their state has taken in more refugees per capita than any other.

During the presidential campaign, Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) became a prime critic of Trump in large part because of his plan to ban Muslims from entering the United States. When Trump signed the executive order, Sasse criticized it as “too broad.” On Sunday, Sasse criticized Trump again, this time for tweeting about the “so-called judge” who halted the order late Friday.

Gov. Pete Ricketts, a Republican who has supported a ban on Syrians from the moment Trump first pitched it, has also talked about welcoming refugees already here as a source of statewide pride.

. . . .

“I worry this ban will change how I feel inside, that it will cause me to worry more for me and my kids. We did not come here to cause trouble. We just want to live.”

. . . .

The Syrian city of Aleppo had been so dangerous that she delivered her twins in her own home, too afraid to go to the hospital. Two months later, she wrapped them tight and carried them on her shoulders as she walked through the desert at night to reach a Jordanian refugee camp. There were no bombs there, but there were no teachers for her children, either. Now her kids learn the alphabet at school, and she had an English teacher herself.

For so long she had been running away. Now, she was stepping out.”

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This matches up with my own experience when I attended the Badger v. Nebraska game at Camp Randall Stadium last October. I really enjoyed meeting and getting to know some of the Nebraska fans.

They were great. Since both schools’ colors are red and white, it was pretty hard to tell them from Badger fans except that their group seemed a little older, somewhat less inebriated, and considerably less rowdy than the Wisconsin contingent.

I was struck by the fact that although the Huskers had just lost an overtime thriller to the Badgers 23-17 on a play that probably could have been called either way, nobody was griping about the call, blaming the referees, or taking anything away from the Badgers. And, for our part, the Badger fans acknowledged that Nebraska had played a great game that could easily have come out the other way. The overall message from “Husker Nation” was that they had fun in Madison, appreciated the hospitality, looked forward to returning, and wished the Badgers well for the rest of the season as I did the Huskers.

PWS

02/06/17

immigrationcourtside Religion & Politics: In His “Other Life,” Judge Neil Gorsuch Belongs To A Liberal Episcopal Church In Denver!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/acts-of-faith/wp/2017/02/01/neil-gorsuch-belongs-to-a-notably-liberal-church-and-would-be-the-first-protestant-on-the-court-in-years/?utm_term=.9e3a77e1bf11

“The day after Donald Trump was elected president, the Rev. Susan Springer wrote to her congregation that they should strive to behave as Godly people who spread hope even though “the world is clasping its head in its hands and crying out in fear.”

That Sunday, one of the ushers at Springer’s church was Neil Gorsuch — soon to become President Trump’s nominee for the open spot on the Supreme Court.

Gorsuch has staked his own conservative positions on numerous issues, including topics of religious concern: In cases involving the art supply chain Hobby Lobby and the Catholic order Little Sisters of the Poor, both of which eventually reached the Supreme Court, Gorsuch ruled in favor of religious conservatives who said the Affordable Care Act infringed on their religious freedom to not pay for contraception.

But at church, he often hears a more liberal point of view.

He belongs to St. John’s Episcopal Church in Boulder, Colo., the Episcopal diocese of Colorado confirmed on Wednesday. Church bulletins show that the judge has been an usher three times in recent months. His wife Louise frequently leads the intercessory prayer and reads the weekly Scripture at Sunday services, and his daughters assist in ceremonial duties during church services as acolytes.

If he joins the Supreme Court, Gorsuch as an Episcopalian would be the first Protestant member since 2010. Five current members are Catholic and three are Jewish, and the late Justice Antonin Scalia was Catholic as well.”

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To me, it says something very positive that Judge Gorsuch can be a member of and participate in a group that does not necessarily share all of his views. And, it says something about his church that they are able to welcome him even though many might disagree with him politically. My wife and I happen to go to a modest sized community-based church in Alexandria, VA that welcomes all people and has both prominent local Democrats and Republicans among our membership.

In some ways, Judge Grosuch reminds me of one of my wonderful former colleagues who was a conservative judge (with a big heart) but was very committed to the mission of his socially liberal Episcopal parish. He was out there delivering sandwiches to the homeless and helping the church to help those less fortunate all the time and was a very loyal participant in the religious services and the intellectual life of his church. And, I always had the impression that the members of his congregation really appreciated him because he gave them insights that they might not have thought about otherwise.

After sports and politics, theology was probably the next most discussed topic at our numerous Arlington Judges lunches. Perhaps for obvious reasons, we tried to keep a lid on the discussions of Immigration Law or save them for “chambers.”

PWS

02/05/17

N. Rappaport In HuffPost: Visa Restrictions Under President Trump’s EO Might Expand!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/5894ed61e4b061551b3dfe64?timestamp=1486251772708

Nolan writes in HuffPost:

“Too much attention is being paid to a 90-day travel ban in President Donald Trump’s Executive Order Protecting the Nation From Foreign Terrorist Entry into the United States (Order). While it is a serious matter, the temporary suspension of admitting aliens from Iraq, Syria, Iran, Sudan, Libya, Somalia, and Yemen into the United States is just the tip of the iceberg. Other provisions in the Order may cause much more serious consequences.

Section 3(a) of the Order directs the Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), in consultation with the Secretary of the Department of State (DOS) and the Director of National Intelligence, to determine what information is needed “from any country to adjudicate any visa, admission, or other benefit under the INA (adjudications) in order to determine that the individual seeking the benefit is who the individual claims to be and is not a security or public-safety threat.” This applies to all countries, not just the seven that are subject to the 90-day suspension.

Those officials have 30 days from the date of the Order to report their “determination of the information needed for adjudications and a list of countries that do not provide adequate information (emphasis supplied).”

Section 3(d) directs the Secretary of State to “request all foreign governments that do not supply such information to start providing such information regarding their nationals within 60 days of notification.” Section 3(e) explains the consequences of failing to comply with this request. Note that this also applies to all countries, not just the seven that are subject to the 90-day delay.

(e) After the 60-day period described in subsection (d) of this section expires, the Secretary of Homeland Security, in consultation with the Secretary of State, shall submit to the President a list of countries recommended for inclusion on a Presidential proclamation that would prohibit the entry of foreign nationals (excluding those foreign nationals traveling on diplomatic visas, …) from countries that do not provide the information requested pursuant to subsection (d) of this section until compliance occurs (emphasis supplied).
This is far more serious than the 90-day ban on immigration from the seven designated countries. With some exceptions, President Trump is going to stop immigration from every country in the world that refuses to provide the requested information. And this ban will continue until compliance occurs.”

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If this happens, there are likely to be more challenges, and more work for lawyers. Could President Trump turn out to be the best thing that has happened to the U.S. legal profession lately? Stay tuned.

PWS

02/05/17

Refugees Already Are Given “Extreme Vetting!”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2017/02/01/refugees-are-already-vigorously-vetted-i-know-because-i-vetted-them/?utm_term=.56efba544468

Former U.S. Immigration Officer and refugee processor Natasha Hall writes in the Washington Post:

“This is what President Trump’s recent executive order has done. The order bans entry for citizens of seven countries for 90 days, suspends all refugee admissions for 120 days, halves the total number of refugees allowed into the United States this year and bars refugees from Syria indefinitely. It demands “a uniform screening standard and procedure,” “questions aimed at identifying fraudulent answers and malicious intent,” “a mechanism to ensure that the applicant is who the applicant claims to be” and “a mechanism to assess whether or not the applicant has the intent to commit criminal or terrorist acts.”

Whoever wrote this order is evidently not aware that these screenings, procedures and questions already exist.

During nearly four years as an immigration officer, I conducted in-person interviews with hundreds of refugees of 20 different nationalities in 10 countries. I saw countless refugees break down crying in my interview room because of the length and severity of the vetting process. From that experience and numerous security briefings, it’s clear that the authors of Trump’s order are unfamiliar with the U.S. immigration system, U.S. laws, international law and the security threats facing our nation. I can’t speak for all refugee and asylum officers, but I can say that those who have been working in immigration for years from opposite ends of the political spectrum are appalled by these new policies.”

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The current ruckus over “vetting” has led to many folks failing to appreciate the outstanding job that the much-maligned DHS, the State Department, The FBI, our NGO partners, U.S. Intelligence Agencies, and the Obama Administration, working together, did in keeping our country safe from foreign terrorist attacks.

PWS

02/05/17

BREAKING: 9TH CIR. Denies Gov’s Request For Immediate Stay Of Judge Robart’s Order, But Orders Expedited Briefing!

http://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/general/2017/02/05/17-35105.pdf

UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS FOR THE NINTH CIRCUIT

FILED

FEB 04 2017

MOLLY C. DWYER, CLERK U.S. COURT OF APPEALS

STATE OF WASHINGTON; STATE OF MINNESOTA,

Plaintiffs-Appellees,

DONALD J. TRUMP, President of the United States; et al.,

Defendants-Appellants.

No. 17-35105

D.C. No. 2:17-cv-00141 Western District of Washington, Seattle

ORDER

Before: CANBY and FRIEDLAND, Circuit Judges.
The court has received appellants’ emergency motion (Docket Entry

No. 14). Appellants’ request for an immediate administrative stay pending full consideration of the emergency motion for a stay pending appeal is denied.

Appellees’ opposition to the emergency motion is due Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 11:59 p.m. PST. Appellants’ reply in support of the emergency motion is due Monday, February 6, 2017 at 3:00 p.m. PST.

MOATT

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Here’s what it means. The Government has appealed o the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals from Judge Robart’s TRO suspending enforcement of the Executive Order on visas and refugees. The Government requested an “immediate emergency stay” of the Judge’s TRO pending appeal. The 9th Circuit rejected the Government’s request for an “immediate” emergency stay (probably because it would have been “ex parte,” that is, without giving the other side a chance to respond).

However the 9th Circuit did order the State of Washington (and other parties opposing the stay) to file a response by noon today (Super Bowl Sunday), and also ordered the Government to respond to that filing by 3:00 PM tomorrow (Monday).

The 9th Circuit’s denial of the “immediate” emergency stay is not a “ruling on the merits” of the appeal or even the request for emergency stay. It just means that the 9th Circuit wanted additional information from both parties before deciding whether or not to grant the emergency stay pending appeal.

The Government’s request for emergency stay thus remains “alive” and could be granted (or denied) after the 9th Circuit has had a chance to review the legal arguments on both sides.

The reporting on this so far has been pretty confusing. Hope this helps straighten things out.

PWS

02/05/17

Watch/Listen To NBC-4’s Northern Virginia Bureau Chief Julie Carey Reporting On Judge Brinkema’s Order!

http://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/Virginia-Joins-Lawsuit-Against-Immigration-Order_Washington-DC-412739303.html

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PWS

02/04/17

BREAKING: It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over: U.S. District Judge James L. Robart (W.D. WA) Issues Nationwide TRO Blocking Key Parts Of Trump’s EO On Visas & Refugees: State Of Washington v. Trump — Gov Will Appeal!

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/02/03/state.of.washington.v.trump.pdf

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This is the issue that never sleeps. A copy of Judge Robart’s Order is at the link. Judge Robart is a George W. Bush appointee.

Here’s more on the TRO and the USG’s reaction from CNN:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/03/politics/federal-judge-temporarily-halts-trump-travel-ban-nationwide-ag-says/index.html

Haste makes waste.

PWS

02/04/17

BREAKING: CNN: Win For Trump Visa Order — US District Judge In Boston Declines To Extend TRO!

http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/03/politics/federal-judge-declines-to-renew-restraining-order-on-trump-travel-ban/index.html

“Washington (CNN)In the first court victory for the Trump administration, a federal judge in Boston declined Friday to renew a temporary restraining order that prohibited the detention or removal of foreign travelers legally authorized to come to the US.

The win in court comes at the same time that the administration issued a clarification to its travel order allowing for some citizens from the seven banned countries — Iraq, Syria, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen — to enter the US under specific circumstances.
The original temporary restraining order, issued by US District Court Judge Allison Burroughs and US Magistrate Judge Judith Dein, was put in place early Sunday morning and was set to expire on February 5.
But a different federal judge, US District Court Judge Nathaniel Gordon, ruled Friday that the claims brought by legal permanent residents are now moot given the White House counsel’s recent clarification that the travel ban order does not apply such individuals.”

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Read the full story at the link. Check the internet for updates and additional analysis as it becomes available.

PWS

02/03/17

HuffPost: 100,000 Visas Revoked Under Trump Order!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-ban-revoked-visas_us_5894b9b9e4b09bd304bb126f?lfqs7aziux8suzyqfr&

Elise Foley Reports on HuffPost:

“WASHINGTON ― The Trump administration provisionally revoked 100,000 visas as part of its ban on travelers from seven Muslim-majority countries, a government lawyer said in court on Friday.

The revelation caused shockwaves on Twitter, but the State Department actually confirmed earlier this week that it had provisionally revoked most visas held by people from Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen.

State Department officials said later Friday that fewer than 60,000 individuals’ visas were provisionally revoked as a result of the order. “To put that number in context, we issued over 11 million immigrant and non-immigrant visas in fiscal year 2015,” a spokesman for the State Department’s Bureau of Consular Affairs told The Huffington Post.

The Justice Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the discrepancy in numbers.”

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As I’ve noted before, to date lawyers have been the only real beneficiaries of the Trump immigration orders.

PWS

01/03/17

Newsweek: Bannon Wants “American Gulag” — Will Anyone Have The Guts To Stop Him?

http://www.newsweek.com/steve-bannon-fever-dream-american-gulag-551472

Jeff Stein writes in this week’s Newsweek:

“Imagine: Miles upon miles of new concrete jails stretching across the scrub-brush horizons of Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and California, with millions of people incarcerated in orange jumpsuits and awaiting deportation.

Such is the fevered vision of a little-noticed segment of President Donald Trump’s sulfurous executive order on border security and immigration enforcement security. Section 5 of the January 25 order calls for the “immediate” construction of detention facilities and allocation of personnel and legal resources “to detain aliens at or near the land border with Mexico” and process them for deportation. But another, much overlooked, order signed the same day spells out, in ominous terms, who will go.

Trump promised a week after the November elections that he would expel or imprison some 2 million or 3 million undocumented immigrants with criminal convictions—a number that exists mainly in his imagination. (Only about 820,000 undocumented immigrants currently have a criminal record, according to the Migration Policy Institute, a nonpartisan think tank. Many of those have traffic infractions and other misdemeanors.)

Still, the spectre of new, pop-up jails housing hundreds of thousands of people is as powerful a fright-dream for liberals as it is a triumph for the president’s “America first” Svengali, Steve Bannon. But, like the fuzzy Trump order dropping the gate on travelers from seven Muslim-majority states, the deportation measure presents so many fiscal and legal restraints that is also looks suspiciously like just another act of ideological showboating from the rumpled White House strategy chief.

“I’m a Leninist,” Bannon proudly proclaimed to the writer Ronald Radosh at a party at his Capitol Hill townhouse in November 2013. “Lenin,” he said of the Russian revolutionary, “wanted to destroy the state, and that’s my goal too. I want to bring everything crashing down, and destroy all of today’s establishment.”

The executive orders were “not issued as result of any recommendation or threat assessment made by DHS to the White House,” Department of Homeland Security officials conceded in a closed-door briefing on Capitol Hill Wednesday, according to a statement from Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill. They were all Bannon-style revolutionary theater.

. . . .

Expect DHS to start advertising for bids from private prison operators, a much-maligned industry that was collapsing in the latter years of the Obama administration. Two of the largest, GEO Group Inc. and CoreCivic Inc., are already seeing windfalls from their second chance at life: Their stock prices have nearly doubled since the election.

All of which recalls another Leninist idea that Bannon may have forgotten: Prisons are universities for revolution.”

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Stein’s article confirms what many of us had suspected all along — these draconian and unnecessary measures were were “’not issued as result of any recommendation or threat assessment made by DHS to the White House.’” No, they were part of a pre-hatched anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim program cooked up by Bannon and others in the White House to “make good” on Trump’s campaign promises (regardless of whether the measures were necessary of sensible).

But they will be a boon for two important U.S. industries: the private prison industry and the legal industry, as both sides “lawyer up” for a long-term, avoidable, and wasteful fight. Who needs foreign enemies when the Administration is so determined to wage warfare against a large number of our own citizens and residents who disagree with his ill-considered and ill-timed policies?

Stein’s full article (well worth the read) is at the link.

PWS

02/03/17

NYT: Administration Will Allow Iraqi Interpreters To Enter After All — Pentagon Comes To The Rescue Of U.S. War Allies

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/02/world/middleeast/trump-visa-ban-iraq-interpreters.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share&_r=0

“BAGHDAD — The Trump administration amended its visa ban on Thursday to allow emigration by the families of Iraqi interpreters who served the United States government and military forces deployed in their country.

The change, recommended by the Pentagon, eased some of the anger generated in Iraq by President Trump’s executive order imposing the ban, which has stoked anxiety and confusion around much of the world since it was issued last week.

The order temporarily blocked all Syrian refugees from entering the United States and suspended visas for applicants from seven Muslim-majority countries, including Iraq. It applied to holders of so-called Special Immigrant Visas issued to interpreters who worked for the United States during its 2003-11 occupation, often at great personal risk, and to their families.

In a statement about the change sent to The New York Times, a United States Embassy official in Baghdad said, “The U.S. government has determined that it is in the national interest to allow Iraqi Special Immigrant Visa (S.I.V.) holders to continue to travel to the United States.” Iraqis who have received the visas, the statement said, may use them, and the “U.S. Embassy in Baghdad will continue to process and issue S.I.V.s to applicants who are otherwise qualified.”

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Wow! Why didn’t they just say that in the first place? Would have saved lots of trouble, heartache, and very bad publicity for the U.S. and the Administration. But, better late than never, I guess.

PWS

02/13/17

WSJ: Two Articles Show How “Trump Country” Depends On Foreign Trade And Immigration!

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-country-might-suffer-more-in-a-trade-war-study-says-1485752403

Bob Davis writes in the WSJ on Jan. 30:

“WASHINGTON—Should the U.S. get embroiled in a trade war, communities that voted for Donald Trump are likely to take a bigger hit than those that voted for Hillary Clinton, according to a study by the Brookings Institution.

Brookings measured what it called the export intensity of urban areas around the country—meaning local goods and service exports as a percentage of local GDP in 2015—to get a picture of those places most dependent on access to the global economy. The most export-intensive places tended to be smaller cities in the Midwest and Southeast—solid Trump country—rather than the big metropolitan areas that went heavily for Mrs. Clinton.
“Trump communities are relatively more reliant on trade,” said Mark Muro, head of Brookings’s metropolitan policy program. “They are smaller communities with less flexibility” to adapt to a cutoff in trade.

“Disruption could be especially troubling for those places,” he said. Brookings said it traces exports back to the point where value is added via production, rather than where goods and services are shipped. The latter gives too much weight to big ports.

Columbus, Ind., a center of machine-making, is the most export-reliant city in the country, Brookings found. The GDP of the city of 46,000, which voted 2 to 1 for Mr. Trump, is 50.6% dependent on exports. Three other Indiana cities—Elkhart, Kokomo and Lafayette—are among the top 10 cities dependent on exports.

The work by Brookings researchers is in some ways the complement to the better-known work of economists David Autor,Gordon Hanson and David Dorn, who identified the localities most vulnerable to Chinese import competition.”

http://www.wsj.com/articles/cities-in-midwest-rust-belt-say-they-need-immigrants-1485890637?emailToken=JRrzcf15YH6Qit0wZsw31UEpY7JNCunMQ1LbM33RJg3WqWfJ5Oisw7lwnNKm5H+vSFc/4d0J4ys+QDjQj3BjWtOK3ucjwQr0KiED9c4=

Will Connors writes in the Jan. 31 WSJ:

“An array of Republican and Democratic officials from across the Rust Belt and Midwest are united in concern about President Donald Trump’s clampdown on refugees and certain immigrants for one overriding reason: Their communities need more people.

Large Democratically-controlled “sanctuary cities” including Chicago, San Francisco and New York have been outspoken in resisting the administration’s ban on refugees and immigrants from seven Muslim-majority countries, citing political and moral reasons.

But officials from a second tier of smaller cities, from Columbus, Ohio, to Troy, Mich., to Garden City, Kan., are highlighting the economic importance of welcoming refugees and immigrants to bolster declining populations and add manpower, skills and entrepreneurial know-how.

“I understand that the president is trying to protect the U.S. However, there are many good people that have located here that are escaping wars and political actions, and they’re just looking for a chance to raise their families in a safe environment,” said Janet Doll, a Republican city commissioner in Garden City, Kan. “The immigrants we have here are productive members of society. They have nice jobs and want to contribute to the quality of life in our community.”

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We haven’t even gotten around to the Trump Administration’s next initiative: an attack on legal immigration to the U.S., family members, workers, both temporary and permanent, and refugees, which was covered in one of my earlier blogs.

Perhaps, instead of stirring the pot for a fruitless “can’t win war” on a well-qualified conservative Supreme Court nominee (actually, along with taking Ivanka to be with the family of Chief Special Warfare Operator William “Ryan” Owens at Dover AFB, one of the most reasonable things Trump has done since Jan 20) the Democrats should take the “high road.” Democrats might also want to do some thinking about how to “build bridges” with with some of these folks in “Trump Country” who are more likely to find economic disappointment, than economic success, in the Trump Administration’s blunderbuss assault on loyal allies, trading partners, and immigrants of all types who fuel the success of the real America (not just Washington, D.C. or “big cities”).

President Trump proved that he could win a comfortable (even if not the “landslide” he likes to claim) electoral victory with only 46.1% of the popular vote. That’s about 40% “Trump base” and a critical 6.1% who might have voted for Obama or Bernie Sanders in earlier elections, but pulled the lever for Trump this time around. If the Democrats don’t come up with a workable strategy to connect with and “peel off” at least some of those voters, Trump will likely be headed for a second term even if he never gets support from a majority of American voters. In that case, Democrats will long for the days when screwing around with an otherwise well-qualified conservative Supreme Court nominee was their biggest problem.

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